Analysts from international research centers state: The Kremlin continues to view southern Ukraine as a key direction for possible expansion of the war. Among the goals discussed in Russian military plans for the coming years are advancing towards Odessa and attempting to establish a foothold on the Black Sea coast.
However, experts note an important detail — the declared timelines and scales of operations often do not match the actual capabilities of the Russian army.
What are the Kremlin’s plans in southern Ukraine
According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian military leadership continues to form a strategy for the period 2025–2027, which includes new offensive tasks.
It is not only about attempts to fully occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The plans also consider further operations in southern Ukraine.
Main directions of possible offensive
According to analysts, several goals are mentioned in Russian strategic documents:
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completion of the occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
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advancing in the Zaporizhzhia region;
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pressure on Ukraine’s positions in the Kherson region;
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attempt to advance towards Odessa and expand control over the southern coast.
Such plans, according to experts, show that the Kremlin does not consider the option of freezing the front line in southern Ukraine.
The ISW report states that Russian goals regarding the Odessa region demonstrate the preservation of territorial ambitions far beyond the five Ukrainian regions that Moscow declared ‘annexed.’
Why experts call these plans unrealistic
Despite the Kremlin’s aggressive rhetoric, analysts believe that achieving such goals remains unlikely.
The Russian military leadership regularly sets unrealistic timelines for operations that do not correspond to the actual capabilities of the army.
History of unfulfilled plans
Experts remind that such practice has been observed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Initially, Moscow planned to capture Kyiv within a few days in February 2022. Then the Russian command announced deadlines for the complete capture of Donbas.
But each time these plans faced serious problems on the battlefield.
According to analysts, Russia has already spent enormous resources — both military and human — trying to achieve the set tasks. However, in recent years, it has not managed to achieve a strategic breakthrough.
It is telling that even Russian military bloggers regularly complain about the command’s inflated goals, which lead to significant losses in costly offensive operations.
Preparation for the defense of Odessa
Amid such statements, Ukraine is strengthening the preparation of the southern direction’s defense.
The head of the regional command of the Territorial Defense Forces ‘South’ Denis Nosikov reported that Odessa is preparing for circular defense — both from land and sea.
Engineering defense system
According to him, a complex network of fortifications and fortifications is being created around the city.
This system should complicate any enemy advancement — both infantry and equipment.
It involves multi-level defensive lines, engineering barriers, and fortified positions that turn the approaches to the city into a complex military labyrinth.
Analysts note that such preparation shows: Ukraine takes the threat to the southern direction seriously, but at the same time is preparing for long-term defense.
That is why the security issues of the Black Sea region are increasingly discussed not only in military headquarters but also in international analytical centers, including materials published by the editorial office of NAnews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency, where possible scenarios of war development and their impact on regional security are considered.
Given the current situation, experts agree on one thing: even if the Kremlin continues to declare large-scale offensive plans, their implementation will depend not only on Russian resources but also on the resilience of Ukrainian defense and international support for Kyiv.